Six political stories to watch in 2026, from the midterms to the maps

The curtain has risen on America’s 250th anniversary year and the stage is set for a critical year for the future of American politics.

Here are six key stories in politics to watch in 2026.

The midterm elections: the House, Senate and Trump agenda at play

The biggest political story of the year will likely be the midterm elections, in which all seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and 35 in the Senate will be up for grabs. Those seats include many in recently redrawn congressional districts or held by members of Congress not running for re-election.

At stake could be the future of President Donald Trump’s agenda: whether Republicans can continue to pass legislation he champions in the House and Senate during his final two years as president. Issues such as healthcare, the economy and immigration will be hot topics.

Republicans hope to expand their narrow House majority to give House Speaker Mike Johnson more votes to pass bills. Meanwhile, Democrats hope to pick up enough seats to flip the House so they can serve as a check on Trump’s legislative agenda.

Once all vacancies in the House are filled, which is expected to happen in mid-2026, Democrats would need to pick up three seats in the midterm elections to flip the House.

Republicans have a larger majority in the US Senate and currently hold 53 seats compared to 45 Democrats and two independents who are part of the Democrats.

But both parties are also competing to strengthen their ranks in the upper house. Key Senate races to watch include Georgia, where Republicans see incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff as a key target.

Controversial primaries will set key races

Some of this year’s key House, Senate and gubernatorial races will focus attention on contentious primaries as multiple candidates compete to be their party’s choice for the November election.

This includes the US Senate primary in Texas, scheduled for March, where both Republicans and Democrats have multiple high-profile candidates in the ring.

Incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn, who has the support of the Republican establishment, faces major challenges from state Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt. The three candidates intend to show themselves as Trump’s unconditional ally.

Meanwhile, Democrats, facing an uphill battle after decades of unsuccessful statewide victories in Texas, also have an intense primary. State Rep. James Talarico, a rising star in the party, faces progressive U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the primary.

Other races with crowded partisan primaries include the Democratic U.S. Senate primary in Illinois, the Republican U.S. Senate primary in Georgia, and the Wisconsin gubernatorial primary.

Could Congressional maps change even more?

The House race could also be further affected by congressional redistricting, with the main caveat that in many states, candidate filing deadlines have passed or will arrive before mid-decade redistricting is complete.

Congressional maps are typically drawn once every 10 years after the census, but when Texas redrew its map last summer to favor Republican candidates, in response to pressure from the White House, it sparked a redistricting fight in the middle of the decade and multiple redrawn maps in both red and blue states.

The November 2026 midterm elections will show whether redrawn congressional maps in Texas, California and elsewhere will work for the parties that pushed them.

And all eyes are on some other states that could move to draw new maps, although it’s up in the air whether either party will win more favorable seats before Election Day.

Virginia could redraw its map to favor Democrats, for example, while Florida could redraw it to favor Republicans, although neither state is sure about redistricting.

And an impending Supreme Court decision could alter the maps even further. the court is considering a case That could determine whether Louisiana and many other states will have to redraw their maps without regard to race. A decision is expected by the end of June 2026, when the court’s term ends.

Gubernatorial races and Trump’s agenda at the state level

Beyond House and Senate elections, 36 states will host gubernatorial elections in 2026, after only two states (Virginia and New Jersey) held gubernatorial elections in 2025.

While there is no political significance to the partisan balance of the nation’s governors, Trump’s agenda could still be in play at the state level, given that governors have often taken the lead in their states in embracing the president’s agenda or opposing it.

Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia and Nevada are among the states expected to have close gubernatorial races, with both parties making strong efforts to secure the state’s top spot.

The long road to 2028

While Trump’s inauguration may have been less than a year ago, by many measures the race for the presidency in 2028 has already begun.

As figures from both parties campaign for the midterm elections, they may also be testing campaign messages and taking a pulse ahead of the launch of presidential campaigns.

High-profile Democrats visited battleground states throughout 2025, potentially to lay the groundwork for candidacies; many will continue to travel through 2026. The Democratic Party is also formally working on primary and caucus calendars for 2028 in early 2026.

On the Republican side, there has been less overt jockeying by presidential hopefuls heading into 2028, but many are keeping a close eye on Vice President JD Vance, widely considered the leading Republican contender if he decides to run.

Turning Point USA, the leading conservative group formerly led by slain activist Charlie Kirk, has already indicated that vanance support for president in 2028 and is ready to start building early support for the vice president in key states like Iowa and New Hampshire.

The future of political parties

But the first moves in 2028 come as every major political party continues to grapple with internal divisions, and those divisions could extend through the primaries and into the midterms — and beyond.

Democrats, locked out of power in Washington, are still grappling with what lessons to learn from losses in 2024 and how to regain the trust of voters who see the party as out of touch.

Victories in the gubernatorial election and the 2025 special election gave some wind to the party, but have not quashed debates about the direction Democrats should take, including whether they should be more moderate or more progressive.

Republicans, in turn, have been riven by debates over free speech and anti-Semitism, and by deepening divisions between the party’s more traditional conservative wing and the “Make America Great Again” movement that Trump led.

The MAGA movement itself is facing infighting, with figures such as Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, who previously advocated for MAGA to break with the president and his allies.

ABC News’ Benjamin Siegel, Lauren Peller and Devin Dwyer contributed to this report.