How Trump’s threats to leave Ukraine War Pose Battlefield Enigas for Kyiv

London – President Donald Trump, frustrated by the failure of his diplomatic efforts to date, has increased the possibility of completely abandoning US participation in the invasion of 3 years of Russia.

“Sometimes two young children are seen fighting in the park,” Trump said in June about the current war, which is the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War II.

“Sometimes, you better let them fight more before separating them,” added the president, his comments in several months of public skepticism about the United States that continue to support Ukraine.

In practice and rhetoric, American help to Ukraine seems to be drying. The Administration approved a sale of military aid from $ 50 million to Ukraine in April, but only after Kyiv signed a controversial mineral exchange agreement. But the White House has not yet immersed about $ 3.9 billion destined to finance military aid to Ukraine, which will be extracted from existing US actions, which means that it can be delivered quickly, that Biden could not spend before the end of his mandate.

It would be Russia that would benefit from a permanent detention of American aid, Ukraine warned.

“Without the American weapons, the situation on the battlefield will, of course, more difficult,” a member of the Ukrainian Parliament that represents ABC News, told ABC News.

Zelenskyy said earlier this year that American help represents 30% of the Ukrainian weapons. Although other estimates arrive as low as 20%, it is clear that Washington is still a key benefactor.

A nine -month pause in American aid in 2024, due to a blocked congress in Rumba, forced kyiv to consider a future without US assistance. Those fears materialized in March 2025 when Trump imposed a freezing of one week in all US military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine.

The flow soon resumed, but Trump’s frustration has only deepened as the peace conversations negotiated in the United States staggered.

The costs of war

The United States remained the only more generous help taxpayer for Ukraine from April 2025, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a German headquarters in Germany that tracks the support of foreign governments towards Ukraine.

The United States has contributed around $ 130 billion in total aid to Ukraine since 2022, of which $ 74 billion are military assistance. Combined, the nations of the European Union have contributed more in general, $ 157 billion, but less than the US on the military front, with a little less than $ 73 billion.

The Ukraine budget for military and security spending approved by legislators at the end of 2024 was around $ 53.7 billion.

Oleksandr V. Danylyuk, associate member of the Royal United Services Institute experts in the United Kingdom, told ABC News that US military assistance is important but not vital.

“I wouldn’t underestimate it, but I wouldn’t overestimate it either,” he said. Around half of the US weapons and ammunition systems could be replaced by alternatives, he said.

How to find replacements for the weapons that the United States would retain can be the most prominent question, told ABC News Pavel Luzin, an analyst at the Fletcher Law Faculty and Diplomacy in TUFTS.

“The previous administration decided that US taxpayers should” assume the burden, he said. “The current administration wants to share this load.”

“Europe can pay US weapons for Ukraine and has enough money for this,” said Luzin. “Ukraine can also pay weapons using European and/or long -term loans. Even Russian frozen assets could be used for this purpose.”

Europe has been criticized for its slow mobilization of its vast resources. But Tina Fordham, a geopolitical strategist and founder of Fordham Global Foresight, told ABC News: “I think we saw during the pandemic, for example, and after the Russian invasion, which Europe is initially slow to act, but then you can act decisively.”

‘There will be more civilians dying’

Perhaps the most vital individual weapons system. Uu. Now in Ukrainian hands it is the Patriot Surface-Air missile system, which has demonstrated its value to tear down drones, ballistic missiles and Russian airplanes since it arrived in the country in the spring of 2023.

Ukraine now has at least six patriots, two of which were provided by the United States and others by different NATO allies.

Ukraine has other air defense platforms, including European Iris-T and Samp-T systems, but Ukraine has celebrated so publicly any celebration of Russian attacks. The system, which entered the service of the United States in the 1980s, has even been able to knock down Russian hypersonic missiles.

Zelenskyy said this month that his nation needs to “urgently” strengthen his air defense capabilities in response to missile intensifiers and Russian drone attacks against cities throughout the country.

“We urgently need positive signals from the United States: concrete signals regarding air defense systems,” he said. “We are still waiting for an answer to our request to buy systems that can help: concrete signals, no words.”

Danylyuk said that air defense is an area in which US support is particularly key.

American manufacturing defenses help improve kyiv’s security in particular, he said. Without them, “kyiv would be beaten in the same way as Odesa or Zaporizhizha,” Danylyuk said.

“That is not good. It will make life, especially for Western diplomats, including US diplomats, much worse,” he continued. “Will our will to fight change? No. There will be more civilians to die, that is the only difference.”

Behind and well above the front line, the huge intelligence capabilities of the United States have also been helping kyiv to resist Russia’s war. American recognition flights about Eastern Europe, for example, have offered kyiv unattainable acquisition of Russian activity and guidance assistance.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies said in May that the intelligence help of the United States has been “extensive”, including signals, images and human intelligence. “This support has allowed Ukraine to counteract the missile neighborhoods, interrupt covert operations and monitoring force movements,” CSIS wrote.

In particular, Air Raid alerts of Ukraine are strongly informed by US satellite data. When the exchange of intelligence froze in March, Ukrainian politicians warned that the result would be more dead civil barriers of Russia’s night barriers.

Shell Hunger has also been an important problem for both parties throughout the war. Russia has resorted to North Korea and Iran for sustenance, while Ukraine has resorted to the West. During the mandate of President Joe Biden, the United States sent more than 3 million layers of 155 mm to Ukraine. Any supply loss could be deadly for first -line Ukrainian units.

America in retirement?

The disappearance of other weapons of the battlefields would serve as a powerful signal of an American pivot.

kyiv trusts the US for ammunition for the Himars rocket artillery system, for example, including long -range attacks.

British-Ferench-Ferench Storm Shadow/Scalp Cruise, Ground launched small diameter bombs, M777, AGM-88 Harm Anti-Admission Missiles and F-16 Fighter Jets are all the systems produced by the United States or that depend on US components and systems, which gives you to you To Kyiv.

The end of American aid, Danylyuk said, “would create some problems”, although it would not be “a complete disaster” if Kyiv can get replacements quickly.

Anyway, “Ukraine is not going to collapse,” Danylyuk said, remembering the two past windows during which US help flowed.

“We could survive those terrible nine months without American help. So, it is not that the Ukrainians would surrender.”